Declining Mpls/Duluth commercial oat stocks correlating with higher oat futures and cash oat prices
Mpls/Duluth commercial oat stocks have been declining in recent years. Dropping from 27,000 ThBu in 2011/12 to just over 11,000 last week.
Correlating strongly to this over the past four years has been the steady increase in CBOT oat futures and Manitoba cash oat prices in May.
The data points to similar correlations between Mpls/Duluth and Canada oat end stocks. In looking at 2020/21, Canadian oat end stocks are forecast to increase 41%, suggesting lower oat prices in the coming crop year. This of course, assumes normal oat yields, quality, and area abandonment. Mpls/Duluth stocks are expected to continue to trend seasonally lower into Canadian oat harvest.