The latest data from Swedish Customs points to a 10.6% or 10,2432 Mt drop in Swedish raw oat exports YTD (July-Dec) despite a good size and quality oat crop this year. The YTD pace is the third slowest in the past ten years and 13% behind the five-year average.
The YOY decline is somewhat deceiving with exports up in four of the five largest destinations, Denmark, Germany Belgium, and Spain, but are down to the US, the UK, Netherlands, and Norway (see table pg. 3). It’s the US drop that accounts for the bulk of the decline.
However, we continue to see long-term negative growth in three of the top five destinations, only Belgium and Spain are showing positive five-year growth rates (CAGR).
Part of what we are seeing in the longer-term negative raw oat export growth in Sweden is increased domestic consumption of oats, mainly in a growing oat milling industry.
Oat product exports in Sweden, mainly flakes and some groats, has been growing at an annual rate of 9.5% over the past five-years and finished 2020 at 5,935 Mt. While certainly not at the numbers we see out of Germany, the UK, and Finland, product exports are growing and will continue to do so moving forward.