UK oat yield concerns rising as dryness persists and expand southward, little moisture in the near term forecast
Yield concerns are rising for UK oat crops as moisture levels are depleting and forecasts are calling for only limited rainfall into mid-June. What was looking like record UK oat production this summer could drop in the coming weeks if timely rains do not arrive.
Rainfall has been below normal for the past two months in northern UK and Scotland oat regions, and the moisture deficiencies have now moved across the entire UK oat production region in the past 28 days (see map lower right).
Forecasts are calling for very little rainfall into June 12 (see map upper right). For many regions, the lack of rainfall has come during critical crop development.
Trendline oat yields may be a reach for many oat production regions given the moisture conditions, particularly in northern UK and Scotland oat areas. Some of the greatest deficiencies are in major production regions in the Western UK.
Based on AHDB early bird planting survey, and trendline yields, UK oat production was pegged at 1.117 MMT. Which if realized, would be a record high (see S&D pg.2). Each one percent decline in yield equates to roughly 18,000 MT of lost production.
There is to be certain room in the current UK oat S&D for some yield declines. However, another 30 days of below normal moisture could however change significantly the balance sheet.