Canada remains on pace for near-record low end and opening oat stocks
Statistics Canada released its latest grower oat deliveries data today. The numbers point to near-record low end and opening oat stocks at August 1.
Deliveries are up 18% YTD (Aug-Jun) as old crop oat supplies dwindle on strong demand. Domestic mill demand has jumped sharply along with strong exports to US and overseas milling markets.
The latest YTD data from Statistics Canada (STC) indicates Canadian growers have delivered 2.802 YTD MMT. This is the 2nd highest YTD level on record (see below and attachment).
Oat deliveries are up in all provinces with Manitoba and Saskatchewan up 14.9 and 16.2% respectively. The STC Data implies Manitoba has run out of old crop oats, which suggests STC may be understating 2019 oat production in the province. Alberta oat deliveries are up 35% YOY with BC up 26% and eastern Canada 16.3%
The strong demand for oat foods during the COVID quarantine is likely to see above-average oat deliveries into the fall.
The forecasted near-record low Canadian oat opening stocks for 2020/21 points to the need for everything to go right for the 2020 Western Canada oat crop.
Deliveries are up on all major crops, wheat, and flax the exceptions.