Canadian oat export on pace to finish 17% above the five-year average, covid lifts oat product exports
The total Canadian raw oat export pace remains solid, up slightly this month to 8% year-to-date (Aug-May). Exports to the US have improved over the past several months (see below and attachment).
The current pace would point to complete 2019/20 crop year exports of 1.933 MMT. If realized, this would be 17% above the five-year average and tighten further 2019/20 Canadian oat end stocks and 2020/21 opening stocks.
Implied US horse demand slowed again in May but remains strong, up 23% YTD. The strong demand comes despite high oat prices versus corn and expectations of renewed Scan exports to the US this year.
Implied US oat mill demand for raw oats is up slightly at 1.6% YTD.
Overseas exports are up a solid 7.8% YTD. UAE demand is up nearly 44% YOY, Japan 13.1%, and China up 148%. The only exports of oats allowed to China from Canada are for seed. Its hard to believe the YTD exports are for seed. Demand to South Korea remains off last year's pace. This is due to larger Australian exports to S. Korea.
Total oat product exports are up 10% YTD this month compared with 7.4% last month. Another CY record is expected. COVID has increased product demand. We are however expecting the demand pace to slow if the US pandemic is brought under control, and quarantines eased. US product demand continues to gain traction, up 9.2% YTD, with offshore exports up 15.56%.