Stats Can holds 2020 Canadian oat planting forecast steady but increases Saskatchewan and Manitoba seeded area
Statistics Canada (STC) released their June planting intentions for Canadian crops this morning. Total Canadian oat area was pegged at 3.839 MilAc, up only marginally from the April estimate of 3.833 MilAc. If realized, this would be up 6.5% compared 2019 levels and 18% above the five year average. The estimate was in line with the oat industry average guess of 3.9 MilAc.
Saskatchewan and Manitoba oat plantings increased 2.8% and 9.2% respectively this month while Alberta fell 12.6% due to excess moisture during seeding this spring. Eastern Canada plantings increased 6.4% this month and are up 5.6% YOY.
Based on average area abandonment and yields, 2020 total Canada oat production will come in around 4.287 MMT. If realized, this would be up 1.2% from 2019 but 18.7% above the five-year average.
Despite the well above average oat production outlook 2020/21 Canadian oat end stocks are on pace for only slightly above average.
We will look at the oat numbers in more detail later today.