As expected, the USDA raised world oat production 2% this as they upward adjusted Australia by 39% this month. If realized, this would be the largest world oat crops in 12-years and provided importers and global oat millers with ample oat supplies. The current global forecast is 5.8% above the five-year average.
Oat production gains are expected in eight of the nine major global oat producers (see below). The larges YOY gains will come from Australia, the US, and Argentina, forecast up 86%, 37.5%, and 51.5% respectively. Canadian production is expected to climb 5.8%with the EU up 4.2%.
Harvest is a long way off but the only major issues we can see now that could significantly impact the world outlook is the dryness in Western Europe, which could lower UK, German, Danish, and French oat yields.
World oat trade forecast up at near-record high
The USDA forecast world oat trade to climb 5.9% in 2021/21. If realized, this would be 10.5% above the five-year average and the 2nd largest level on record (see table below).
Australia oat exports are forecast up 60% YOY as production is forecast to climb 82% in 2020.
The USDA is forecasting higher Chinese oat imports by 100,000 MT. This will account for a large part of the higher Aussie export numbers in 2020/21.
To reach the USDA forecasted increase Australia will also have to recapture lost export markets, many which were taken-up mainly by Canada. Mexico could be a potential target for Australia exports in 2020/21 as well as the UAE.
US oat imports are forecast to fall 2.9% in 2020/21 YOY said the USDA report while Mexican imports will be unchanged. South Africa, and India are expected to reduce imports in 2020/21.
EU oat exports will fall 9.5% in 2020/21 said the USDA with Russia expected to increase exports by nearly 200%. Much of this increase may go to China.
Chile is also expected to increase raw oat exports along with Kazakhstan.