Improved soil moisture levels in Western Australia (WA) combined with advancing oat plantings have pushed WA oat prices to below the four-year average (see chart below).
Prices paid to growers have fallen to AUD$267 PMT delivered port. This is below the average of $279 PMT and well below last year’s $382 PMT. Prices have tumbled nearly $175 PMT from the 2019/20 highs.
Expectations of a 15% increase in WA oat area (10 year high) is likely sharp rebound in oat production in 2020 if follow up rains materialize.
Australia weather in major oat regions during the weekend was relatively tranquil with little to no rain and mild temperatures. Frost and freezes occurred in the southeast part of the nation, but that is not unusual for this time of year.
Australia rain potentials will slowly increase starting in the west late this week and advancing eastward through the weekend. Amounts will be light varying from 0.05 to 0.40 inch. There is potential for greater rainfall in northeastern New South Wales and southeastern Queensland oat regions during the weekend with some totals over 1.00 inch possible. Rain next week is not likely to be very significant with only a few showers expected.
Winter crops, including oats, will benefit from the coming week of rain, but amounts will be a little light and there will be need for additional moisture.
Dry EU/UK oat regions reported rain over the weekend, bringing “some” relief to dry oat regions, but the precipitation and that which is still forthcoming maybe a little too light for a huge improvement in oat crop and field conditions (see map pg. 2).
This is not good news for dry UK oat regions. Nevertheless, any moisture would be better than none, and crops will respond positively to whatever rain impacts the region.
Canada’s Prairie oat regions received rain during the weekend, and more is expected early this week. This is good news for dry central and eastern regions but further delays for oat seeding in Alberta (see map below).
Rain through dawn Sunday was greatest from central and eastern Alberta through western and some central Saskatchewan locations as well as a few south-central Manitoba locations. Rainfall in each of these areas ranged from 0.50 to 1.50 inches. A few unofficial rain totals to more than 4.00 inches were noted in west-central Saskatchewan.
Rainfall was less than 0.50 inch in south-central areas through all of eastern Saskatchewan and in parts of western and northern Manitoba as well as far western Alberta
Additional rain today and Monday will vary from 0.30 to 1.00 inches in Alberta, northern and some eastern Saskatchewan locations and northwestern and far southeastern Manitoba locations. Local totals will vary up to 1.50 inches. Overall, for the storm system this week much of Canada’s Prairies oat region will have received some beneficial rain and only a few areas will have an ongoing need for more rain. The interior southeastern Prairies have a need for more rain soon.